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Live forecasts update automatically; written guidance last reviewed 23 June 2026 by the Down Under Brief Weather Desk. Data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and other national met services via Open-Meteo.
A polar vortex over Antarctica is the primary driver of Australia’s winter cold snaps, funnelling icy air north across the southern states. The live forecast above shows current temperatures and pressure patterns, which can shift rapidly when the vortex weakens or strengthens.
What is the polar vortex and how does it affect Australia?
The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air that rotates above the South Pole. When the vortex is strong, it typically keeps the coldest air locked over Antarctica. But when it weakens or becomes distorted—an event sometimes linked to sudden stratospheric warming over Australia—cold air spills north, bringing frosty mornings and snow to alpine regions. This phenomenon is closely watched by meteorologists, as it can trigger extended cool spells across Victoria, Tasmania and parts of New South Wales.
What’s the outlook for cold snaps linked to the polar vortex?
Modelling suggests the Antarctic polar vortex may remain stretched in the coming weeks, increasing the likelihood of cold outbreaks for southern Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology notes that la Niña weather in Australia often amplifies this effect, as cooler ocean currents reinforce the south-westerly flow. If you are wondering when is the next la Niña in Australia, current indicators point to a possible return later in spring, which would prolong the polar influence.
Does Australia have its own polar vortex?
No. The polar vortex is centred over Antarctica, but its outer edge regularly sweeps across southern Australia, especially during winter. It is not a separate system but a large-scale feature that influences our weather.
Can the polar vortex cause summer cold snaps in Australia?
Yes, though less common. When the vortex is unusually strong or displaced, it can push cold air into Australia even in warmer months, leading to unseasonably cool days and rain.
How does the polar vortex relate to sudden stratospheric warming?
Sudden stratospheric warming over Australia—a rapid temperature rise high in the atmosphere—can weaken or split the polar vortex, often triggering a cold outbreak a week or two later. This is a key focus for long-range forecasters.
Stay up to date with the latest conditions on our Australia weather hub, including detailed forecasts for Melbourne and Sydney. For icy road warnings and snowfall alerts, check the severe weather warning page.